The 20-minute football season: Brady out for the year?
I tuned in today to watch the first game of the NFL season for my beloved Patriots. They were a bit out of sync early on, which was to be expected since Tom Brady hadn't played a snap in the preseason. The clock read 10:20 am Pacific Time when Kansas City safety Bernard Pollard rolled into Brady's left knee, forcing the reigning NFL MVP to let out a scream. Brady hasn't missed a start since he took over for Drew Bledsoe nearly seven years ago, a streak of 128 straight games that ranks him amongst the game's most dependable field generals. And yet there he was, 20 minutes into the NFL season, lying on the ground in pain. At that moment, I saw a return trip to the Super Bowl go up in smoke.
Even though the official word won't come until tomorrow's MRI, by all accounts it looks like Brady's ACL is torn. An ACL tear would mean no Brady until next season and would force the Patriots to run under fourth-year backup Matt Cassell. Cassell's New England career started out promising, drawing great reviews from coaches, sportwriters, and fans for his good arm and foot speed. After the first year, however, his production fell off significantly. There were questions as to whether Cassell would even make the team this year as he performed poorly in the preseason, never leading the team to a single touchdown. My dad and I spoke after each preseason game and we both had the same assessment, "if Brady goes down this year, we're screwed."
Cassell came in during the first quarter and performed admirably under pressure, successfully guiding the team to two touchdowns and a field goal, including a 50 yard pass out of his own end zone to Randy Moss. He's no Brady, but Cassell did about as well as could be expected under the circumstances. He got a lot of help from the running backs, with Maroney and Morris both running extremely well. The defense also played very well, especially against the run, for most of the game. It was at the end of the game that they gave up a huge pass play to Chiefs backup quarterback Damon Huard that nearly allowed them to tie the game. But the Patriots defense stiffened up and held out for the win.
The Patriots' future without Tom Brady isn't a good one. Cassell is unproven and if something should happen to him, we have only rookie quarterback Kevin O'Connell on the roster. The Patriots will surely be bringing in any out-of-work experienced quarterbacks they can get on speed dial this week. I said before the season started that the Patriots would win only six games if Brady missed the entire season. The Patriots are a very talented team on offense but Brady is their leader. How can you doubt a two-time Super Bowl MVP? Cassell hasn't started a meaningful game since high school, as he was a perenial backup at USC to both Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer. In order for this team to win a much-improved AFC East, they'll need several things to happen:
- The defense must play better, plain and simple. The front three came up huge, stuffing Larry Johnson for most of the game, but the linebackers and secondary need to tighten up. They let too much get through today and put us in a bad position at the end of the game.
- The running backs must play well. If Maroney and Morris can provide the same one-two punch they had last year and average over 130 yards per game combined, they'll take pressure off of Cassell to win the game for the team.
- The offense is simplified. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels loves to throw the ball deep and has all kinds of gadget plays to get the ball into his playmakers' hands. Those work great for Brady, but I don't trust Cassell to make those happen. If McDaniels can dial it back and keep the playbook simple, Cassell will have a much better chance of succeeding.
Fortunately, the Patriots have the statistically easiest schedule this season based on teams' records from last year. That gives Cassell a good shot at getting some experience, and wins, against a good number of NFL teams. With that, we may be able to scare up 8 wins and challenge for the division. It'll be tough with an improved New York Jets team, a scrappy Miami Dolphins team, and an actually good Buffalo Bills team, but the Patriots still have the most talent in the division so it should, theoretically be possible.
The most ironic part of this whole situation is that Tom Brady has been listed on the injury list for nearly every game in the past five years. Today was the first game that Brady wasn't on the injury list at all and he ends up suffering the worst injury in his career. As Pollard rolled into Brady's knee, I foresaw myself reverting back to the Patriots fan I was prior to Bill Parcells arriving in New England: every game was a crapshoot, and I fully expected them to lose. I waited seven months for football to come back, and now it's gone again. I'll still cheer, but I have a feeling that this season is going to be painful.
